India Has ‘Good Vibes’ with Trump, and Modi Is Trying to Keep It That Way

Introduction

India’s relationship with the United States has been a key factor in its geopolitical and economic strategies, and former U.S. President Donald Trump played a significant role in shaping that dynamic. During his tenure, Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi shared a visible camaraderie, marked by high-profile events like the “Howdy, Modi!” rally in Houston and the “Namaste Trump” event in Ahmedabad. These gestures symbolized a strong personal bond that translated into closer diplomatic ties between the two nations.

However, as the political landscape in the U.S. continues to evolve, Modi’s government is working to maintain these “good vibes” with Trump and his political influence, whether in power or not. This article explores how India is navigating its relationship with Trump, the impact of past policies, and the country’s broader strategy toward U.S.-India relations.

Trump’s Tenure and India’s Gains

During Trump’s presidency (2017–2021), India and the U.S. deepened their strategic and defense partnerships. Several key developments defined this phase:

1. Closer Defense Ties – Under Trump, the U.S. strengthened India’s role as a key defense ally. Agreements like the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) allowed India access to advanced U.S. geospatial intelligence, enhancing military coordination. Additionally, India procured over $3 billion worth of military equipment, including Apache and Chinook helicopters.
2. Trade Tensions with a Pragmatic Approach – Trade relations between the two countries saw both friction and cooperation. The U.S. removed India from its Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) program, affecting certain Indian exports. However, both nations engaged in negotiations, and India increased purchases of U.S. energy products to balance trade.
3. Strategic Partnership in the Indo-Pacific – The Trump administration bolstered India’s role in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. India joined the revived Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) alongside the U.S., Japan, and Australia, reinforcing its stance against China’s growing assertiveness.
4. Tough Stance on Pakistan – Trump’s administration took a harder stance on Pakistan regarding terrorism, which aligned with India’s concerns. The U.S. cut military aid to Pakistan, a move welcomed by New Delhi.
5. High-Profile Public Engagements – Trump’s visit to India in February 2020 was marked by the massive “Namaste Trump” event in Ahmedabad, mirroring Modi’s Houston rally in 2019. These events showcased a warm personal bond and mutual political advantage.

Why Modi Wants to Maintain ‘Good Vibes’ with Trump

Despite Trump no longer being in power, Modi’s government is carefully balancing its relations with both the Biden administration and Trump’s political base, recognizing the latter’s continued influence in U.S. politics. Several reasons underscore this approach:

1. Trump’s Continued Political Clout

With the possibility of Trump making a strong comeback in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, India wants to ensure that its relations with him remain positive. Given Trump’s transactional approach to diplomacy, Modi’s outreach ensures that India remains a favored partner if he returns to office.

2. Bipartisan Consensus on Strong India Ties

India-U.S. relations have historically enjoyed bipartisan support in Washington, D.C. While Trump took a more aggressive stance on issues like China and trade, Biden’s administration has largely continued strengthening ties with India. Modi’s government is ensuring continuity by keeping positive relations with Trump’s allies while working with the Biden administration.

3. Strategic Calculations Against China

One of the defining aspects of India’s foreign policy is managing tensions with China. Trump’s strong anti-China stance resonated with India, particularly after the 2020 border clashes between Indian and Chinese troops in Ladakh. If Trump were to return, India would likely benefit from a more confrontational U.S. policy toward Beijing.

4. Economic and Trade Interests

India sees the U.S. as a critical economic partner, particularly in technology, pharmaceuticals, and defense. Trump’s tenure had mixed outcomes on trade, but his pro-business stance aligned with India’s push for greater investment. Modi’s government seeks to maintain warm ties with Trump and his business-friendly policies should he return to power.

Modi’s Balancing Act: Engaging with Biden While Keeping Trump Close

Modi’s strategy has been to work closely with Biden’s administration while keeping communication lines open with Trump’s network. The following steps illustrate this approach:

1. Strengthening Relations with the Biden Administration

Despite differences on issues like human rights and climate policy, Modi has engaged with Biden on key matters:

• Quad Cooperation: Under Biden, the Quad alliance has become more active, focusing on security, supply chains, and technology partnerships.
• Defense and Tech Partnerships: The U.S. has supported India’s semiconductor industry, advanced AI research, and green energy initiatives.
• Shared Democratic Values (Despite Tensions): While some Democrats have criticized Modi’s domestic policies, India remains a crucial partner in countering China’s global influence.

2. Maintaining Backchannel Ties with Trump’s Circle

Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have quietly maintained relations with influential Trump supporters, Republican lawmakers, and business leaders who align with Trump’s ideology. The Indian diaspora, particularly in the U.S., has been instrumental in this effort, supporting Trump in past elections while maintaining strong ties with Modi’s government.

3. Leveraging Indian-American Influence

The Indian-American community, one of the most politically engaged immigrant groups in the U.S., plays a crucial role in bridging relations. Prominent Indian-origin politicians like Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy have been linked to the Republican Party, and Modi’s government actively engages with them.

Challenges in Navigating Trump’s Influence

While Modi’s government seeks to maintain strong ties with Trump, certain challenges could arise:

1. Unpredictability of Trump’s Policies – Trump’s erratic decision-making style, including abrupt policy shifts on trade and immigration, could pose challenges for India if he returns to office.
2. Potential Tensions with the Democratic Administration – If India appears overly aligned with Trump’s network, it could strain relations with Biden’s administration, which is currently crucial for India’s global positioning.
3. Human Rights and Democracy Criticism – Some sections of the Democratic Party have criticized Modi’s policies regarding press freedom and minority rights. Trump was less vocal on these issues, but a future administration could take a harder stance, affecting bilateral ties.

Conclusion: Modi’s Long-Term Strategy

India’s diplomacy with the U.S. is a balancing act between different political forces. Modi’s government recognizes the importance of maintaining strong ties with both the Biden administration and Trump’s political circle. By fostering bipartisan goodwill and keeping relations warm with Trump, India ensures its strategic interests are safeguarded, regardless of who holds power in Washington.

As the 2024 U.S. elections approach, India will continue to engage with both parties, leveraging its geopolitical importance and economic potential to maintain strong relations with the U.S. Whether Trump returns to office or not, Modi’s strategy of preserving “good vibes” with Trump ensures that India remains a key player on the global stage.